File: 110196_aacfn_03.txt
Page: 03
Total Pages: 5

MED AS THE PVA MAX IS BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE SE INTO THE TROF,
SLIGHTLY DEEPENING THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. MAX WNDS AT 300MB
ARE EXCEEDING 120KTS W/ THIS MAX/S/WV. THE FNOC MODEL VERIFIED WELL
W/ THE PVA MATCHING WELL W/ UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVR SWRN TURKEY AND
THE VORT LOBE IN CNTRL SA. ON THE SFC, LOW AND HIGH PLACEMENT WERE
EXCELLENT. HOWEVER JUST BEFORE THIS PRODUCT'S ISSUE TIME THE
SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE PRIMARY WX PRODUCER (MAJOR S/WV) STARTED
MOVG RAPIDLY THRU THE NWRN AOR IMPROVING THE AREA QUICKLY AFTER THE
TS/RASH MVD OUT. AFTER A THOUROUGH RE-ANALYSIS IT WAS FOUND THAT THE
GSM MODEL HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. IT SHOWS THIS ~
CURRENT S/WV TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER S/WV DROPPING - FROM THE NW INTERACTING W/ A S/WV IN THE STJ BY THE END OF THIS
1ST PERIOD. DURG THIS FCST PERIOD, THE LOW IS PROGGED TO CON T
TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE SERN MED COUNTRIES AND JUST N OFF THE
IRADI/SA BORDER APPROACING KUWAIT BY EOR. THE VORTICITY WILL -
INTENSIFY AS THE LONG WV TROF DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY W/ THE INTERACTION -
MENTIONED ABV. SOME IMPRESSIVE UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE MOVES THRU IRAQ
AND NRN,SA BY EOP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LOWER CIGS IN THE N AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY RASH AND ISOLD TS. ON THE SFC, FOLLOWING THE
STREAMLINE PROGS, GUSTY WNDS W/ BLOWING DUST WILL OCCUR IN THE
ADVANCE OF THIS SYS ALONG NERN SA CAUSED BY A LINE OF CONVERGENCE OVR
CNTRL SA FEEDING INTO THE LOW. FOLLOWING PASSAGE XPCT A WND SHIFT AND
??? WNDS AND MINIMAL BLOWING DUST INTO THE NEXT PERIOD............
2. SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 20/12Z.
(26N/52E) (22N/64E) (18N/49E)
TEMP(C) 22 24 26
WAVE DIR 090 030 130 -
PERIOD SEC 4 4 4
HEIGHT FT 2 3 4
3. PART C: METSAT DISCUSSION:
DMSP PICTURES FROM 18Z WERE USED FOR THIS DISCUSSION. MOISTURE FROM -
THE STJ HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 12HRS CVR NRN AFRICA W/ A BKN DECK
OF CI/CS MOVG EGYPT. THE 5OOMB VORT MAX IS MOVG INTO WRN IRAQ AND NRN
SAUDI ARABIA AND IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS TSTMS W/ MAX TOPS 350. THE
NEW 12Z FNOC CHARTS INITIALIZED WELL (SEE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION) W/ THE
POSITION OF THE VCRT MAX OVR SYRIA. THERE'S A BKN DECK OF AC/AS IN
CNTRL SA CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF AS THE 700MB TROF PUSHES
E. THE RED SEA CONVERGENCE ZONE IS OLD FREE THIS PERIOD. A DECK OF SC
IS EVIDENT ALONG THE MTNS OF ETHIOPIA DUE TO LLVL MOISTURE BEING
PUMPED IN FROM THE RED SEA. SCT TO BKN SC/CU IS ALONG THE HAJAR MTNS
DUE TO THE ON SHORE FLOW. A S/WV OVR NRN AFRICA WILL ADVECT MID/HIGH
CIGS INTO EGYPT AND NWRN SA W/ THE STJ IN THIS PERIOD.
4 PART D: AREA FORECASTS
A. AREA 10:
WINDS: NWRN: 22012KT; 3001S/20KT AFT 08Z
NERN: 16010KT; 21012/18KT AFT OSZ; ISOLD G2SKT 07Z TO 15Z
- CNTRL/ERN: 1S010KT; 16012/18KT AFT 06Z; 23012/18KTAFT 18Z
SRN: 1S006KT; 16012KT AFT 06Z; G18 08Z TO 15Z
WRN: VRBOSKT; 30012/18KT AFT lOZ
VSBY/WX: 7