TAC SPECIAL ASSESSMENT 011-91-IRAQI OPERABILITY/SUSTAINABILITY

File: 120596_aacys_03.txt
Page: 03
Total Pages: 3


                  ALL OF IRAQ'S MODERN TACTICAL AIRCRAFT ARE CAPABLE
 OF DELIVERING BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS. THE CARDOEN CLUSTER BOMB WILL BE
 USED (CBU-13O LB, CBU-500 LB). THEY CAN COVER AN AREA OF 10,000 TO
 45,000 SQUARE METERS DEPENDING ON BOMB SIZE, OPERATIONAL EMPLOYMENT,
 AND WEATHER.

   IRAQ'S NBC PRODUCTION CAPABILITY HAS BEEN
 SYSTEMICALLY ATTACKED AND DEGRADED BY PRECISION ALLIED AIR STRIKES. 
 ALLIED FORCES HAVE DESTROYED IRAQ'S NUCLEAR REACTORS CAPABLE OF
 MAKING FISSIONABLE MATERIAL. IRAQ'S ABILITY TO CHEMICALLY FILL 
 ARTILLERY AMMUNITION HAS BEEN DESTROYED. THEIR CHEMICAL PRODUCTION
 CAPABILITIES HAVE BEEN DEGRADED [(b)(1)sec3.4(b)(1)]  BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTION
 CAPABILITIES HAVE BEEN DEGRADED  [(b)(1)sec3.4(b)(1)]  CW STOCKPILES
 IN BUNKERS, HAVE BEEN REDUCED [(b)(1)SEC3.4(b)(1)]  BW BUNKERED
 STOCKPILES HAVE BEEN REDUCED   [(b)(1)sec3.4(b)(1)]   ATTRITION OF THESE
 STOCKPILES WILL REDUCE SIGNIFICANTLY IRAQ'S CAPACITY TO SUSTAIN A
 CHEMICAL/BIOLOGICAL WAR. APPROXIMATELY   [(b)(1)sec3.4(b)(1)] IRAQ'S CHEMICAL
 [(b)(1)sec3.4(b)(1)]
 AGENT STOCK IS ASSESSED TO BE IN BOMBS. WITH IRAQ'S CURRENT INABILITY

 PORTIONS FROM PAGE 6 WITHHELD.  NOT HEALTH RELATED.

TO UTILIZE ITS AIR FORCE EFFECTIVELY, A MAJOR PORTION OF ITS CHEMICAL
WEAPON EMPLOYMENT MAY BE SEVERELY HAMPERED.  IRAQ'S OVERALL ARTILLERY
AMMUNITION SUPPLY  IN THE KTO HAS BEEN ASSESSED AS LASTING  [(b)(1)sec3.4(b)(1)]
BASED ON THIS AND ASSUMING CHEMICAL MUNITIONS USAGE IS PROPORTIONATE,
THEN ARTILLERY CHEMICAL MUNITIONS SHOULD ALSO LAST [(b)(1)sec3.4(b)(1)]
CHEMICAL NERVE AGENTS PRODUCED IN THE DECEMBER/JANUARY TIME FRAME  
WILL DETERIORATE BY LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. CHEMICAL BINARY STOCKS,
BLISTER AGENTS, AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS SHOULD HAVE A LONGER SHELF
LIFE.
 	THE SUSTAINABILITY OF EMPLOYMENT OF AERIAL BOMBS WILL
 RESIDE MORE IN THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE IRAQI AIR FORCE THAN IT WILL
 IN THE STOCKPILE OF MUNITIONS. AFTER THE INITIAL SUPPLY OF
 MUNITIONS IN THE KTO ARE EXHAUSTED, SUSTAINABILITY WILL BECOME A
FACTOR OF THE DEGRADATION OF LOC'S.  IRAQ PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ABLE
 TO SUSTAIN EMPLOYMENT OF CBW IN A DRAWN OUT GROUND ENGAGEMENT.

PORTIONS FROM PAGE 7 WITHHELD.  NOT HEALTH RELATED.