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- EPW AND DEFECTORS CONTINUE TO REPORT LOW MORALE AMONG THE FRONT

  LINE IRAQI TROOPS.
  -- FOOD AND WATER ARE VERY SCARCE AND SUPPLY PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN

     EXACERBATED BY COALITION BOMBINGS.

  -- DESERTIONS CONTINUE TO GROW AS THESE IRAQI SOLDIERS PERCEIVE

     THAT THEY HAVE BEEN ABANDONED AND HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE FRONT

     ONLY TO DIE

  -- DESERTIONS IN SOME UNITS HAVE REPORTEDLY REACHED 50% AND

     HIGHER.

  -- EPW/DEFECTORS REPORT A l?LACK OF DESIRE FOR WAR" AND EXPRESS

     POSITIVE FEELINGS TOWARD COALITION CALLS FOR THEM TO DEFECT.

         IT GIVES THEM A FEELING OF SAFETY AND A SENSE OF ASSURANCE

         THAT THEY ARE WELCOME TO COME ACROSS THE BORDER AND

         SURRENDER.
              THESE FEELINGS ARE VIRTUALLY UNIVERSAL AMONG KURDISH

              TROOPS, WHO ARE BELIEVED TO NUMBER AS HIGH AS 25% OF

              FRONT LINE UNITS; BUT THEY ARE ALSO PREDOMINANT AMONG

              THE OTHER IRAQI FRONT LINE ENLISTED PERSONNEL.


SCUDS

- REMAIN MILITARILY INSIGNIFICANT

  -- INACCURATE

  -- INEFFECTIVE


- IRAQI MODIFIED SCUDS CONSISTENTLY BREAK UP UPON RE-ENTRY AND FALL

  IN MULTIPLE PIECES.


- PRIMARY UTILITY OF MODIFIED SCUD IS AS A TERRORIST WEAPON

  TARGETING CIVILIAN POPULATION CENTERS.

  -- THE RESULTS OF THE LAST SCUD ATTACK IN DHAHRAN DEMONSTRATE THE

     MISFORTUNE OF WAR.   THE COMBINATION OF WAREHOUSE LOCATION

     (HOUSING) AND THE DEBRIS TRAJECTORY FROM A DISINTEGRATING SCUD

     COMBINED TO PRECLUDE AN ENGAGEMENT BY PATRIOT.


                                  16

(INFORMATION CURRENT AS OF 27 FEB 1991)

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