CBW THREAT TO DESERT SHEILD

File: aabft_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 4
SUBJECT:  CBW THREAT TO DESERT SHEILD
                                                                         
                                                 CBW THREAT TO DESERT SHIELD 
                                                                         
         There is  potential threat to staging of operation Desert Shield
   from. Iraq's chemical and biological weapons. Although Saddam's air delivery
   systems may be unable to successfully strike sites such as the Royal Saudi Air
   force Headquarters complex and the airfield in Bahrain,, both these and other
   such sites may be vulnerable to unconventional attack,

         If we engage the Iraqis, one of their prime objectives is likely to be
   degradation of our air power. He believe Saddam may use every means at his
   disposal to disrupt and degrade US warfighting capabilities:  Although we have
   no data to indicate whether or not he knows the locations of strategic
   elements of our forces, we believe Saddam may assess the likelihood that he
   could reach them to be greater with a nonconventional approach.

            [(b)(1)sec3.4(b)(2)]
                              
         The following data and scenarios should be considered representative
    rather than absolute or all inclusive. Surface winds, critical elements in
    judging the spread of chemical or biological agents, are highly variable in
    both speed and direction during October.   This situation favors the defender,
    making it more difficult for those mounting an attack to plan it, but does not
    negate the potential danger of attack.        .
          
        There are various possible scenarios involving sabotage which we will not
    address. He will, instead, focus on examples of scenarios involv1ng surprise,
    unconventional attack.   

    Scenarios
 
    [(b)(1)sec 3.4(b)(2)