File: aacly_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 3

U N C L A S
SWO BULLETIN 45
FOXX31 XXXX 101200
KOCK JOAF #~41 VALID: 10/l2OOZ TO 11/12OOZ FEB 91
1. RART A: SYNOPTIC SITUATION/24HR OUTLOOK:
AT OOZ, SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH RRESS CONTG TO PUSH DEEPLY INTO THE
ARABIAN PENN. A HIGH CNTR WAS LOCATED AT 23N/42E (1025MB). LOW
PRESS WAS MASSING IN THE NERN MED WITH A LOW AT 38N/2SE (1021MB).
TROFING XTND FRM THIS LOW TO A WK LOW AT 29N/42E (1023MB), LEESIDE
ORIGIN IS XPCTD. A SML TROF XTNDS FRM THIS LOW TO 28N/44E. NO SIG
WX IS ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TROFING BTWN THE TWO LOWS, AND
ITS RESULTANT CON V IS ADDING TO THE SC DVLRG IN THE ERN MED. LOW LVL
CON V BTWN THE HIGH IN SA AND A TROF BTWN 29N/49E AND 25N/62E IS CONTG
TO CAUSE GUSTY SFC WNDS FOR THE ERN PENN AND THE GULF. ANOTHER TROF
IS FOUND BTWN 37N/49E AND 27N/63E. THE HIGH PRESS IN THE PENN HAS
SHIFTED THE RED SEA TROF W, AND IT IS PRESENTLY ANALYZED BTWN 27N/34E
AND 12N/30E. AN UPPR LVL WAVE WHICH WAS XPCTD TO GO THRU THE NRN
AOR THIS EVE APPEARS TO BE MOVG FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. ITS
AFFECTS WILL NOW BE FELT IN THE NRN AOR THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING THE
NERN AOR BY MORN. THIS WILL CAUSE A BRF RERIOD OF MID/UPPR LVL CIGS
W/MINIMAL SFC AFFECTS EXPERIENCED. OTHERWISE, THE AOR WILL CONT TO
BASK UNDER FAIR TO SCT SKIES. GOOD WAA BEGINS TO BUILD THF UPPR LVL
RIDGE TO THE W OF THE AOR AND IT IS XPCTD TO BEGIN TO SHIFT E DURG
THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCR THE FG/ST EVENTS ON THE CSTS OF
THE CSTS OF THE ARABIAN PENN.
2. SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 11/OOZ
(26N/S2E) (22N/64E) (18N/40E)
TEMP (C) 21 24 26
WAVE DIR 340 220 100
PERIOD SEC 6 4 4
HEIGHT FT 5 3 4
3. PART C: METSAT DISCUSSION:
L/WV RIDGE AXIS CNTRD OVR 27E BEING DISTORTED BY S/WV VSBL ON 06Z WTR
VPR W/MARK ED INCR OF MID AND UPPR LVL MSTR AS IT ADVCTS ESE OVR THE
ERN MED IN STJ FLOW AT 30KTS. THE STJ AXIS CONTS ESE FRM SON/SOE TO
A BROAD BASED TROF VCNTY 25N/56E, THEN ENE INTO IRAN. IN THE NRN
AOR, A BRANCH OF THE PFJ lS EVIDENT THRU NRN IRAQ IN FLOW FRM ERN
BLACK SEA (40N/38E) TO TROF AXIS OVR IRAN (33N/55E). NRN AOR REMAINS
CLDLESS W/XCPTN OF THICK SMOKE IN CNTRL IRAQ. SMOKE TOPS EST AT 050
AT O9Z AND IT CON TS TO ADVCT SE W/85OMB FLOW AT lSKTS. MOST SIG
CLDS A4E OCCRG OVR THE ARABIAN PENN S OF 20N, W/SFC RIDGE AXIS THRU
CNTRL SA (N TO S ALG 45E). ONSHORE FLOW OVR NIGHT ADVCTD MSTR FRM
THE GULF INTO LWR SA. RAD FQ DVLPD AND IS CURR LFTG TO SC CLDS W/LTL
MVMT EVIDENT. ALG THE SRN CST, WK ONSHORE FLOW FRM LOW LVL WNDS
CAUSED BKN SC TO STRETCH FRM 54E W TO THE ENTRANCE TO THE RED SEA.
SOME BKN ACAS EVIDENT ALG CSTLN ALSO FRM S/WVS IN WK SECONDARY STJ -~
FLOW. RED SEA CON V AREA CLS HAVE RTND SLTLY N DURG LAST 24HRS, W/NRN
BNDRY XTNDG FRM 16N TO 18N. A REFLECTION OF GRAD INCR OF ] WNDS FRM
WRN SA.
PART D: AREA FORECASTS