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UNCLASS
    SWO BULLETIN 45
    FQYX31 XXXX 241200
    K~ ~ JOAF #307VALID: 24/12002 TO 25/12002 JAN 91
   1.(u) PART A: SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
    00Z LAWC SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE ON THE POLAR FRONT IN NERN IQ (35N/45E,      
    1015SMBS). LITTLE WK IS ASSOCD WITH THIS FRONT W/ ONLY BKN LOW AND
    MID CLDS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRNT. THE FRNT XINDS SW TO 32N/41E,
    THEN W TO 32N/38E1 WHERE IT BCMS A WARM FRNT XTNDG NW INTO ANOTHER
    LOW AT 33N/34F (1017MB). THE POLAR FRNT CONTS ON TO THE NW TO
    ANOTHER WAVE AT 36.5N/37E1 THEN SW/W INTO THE CNTL MED. THE POLAR
    FRNT LEAVES THE FIRST LOW TO THE SSE, ALG THE ZAGROS MTNS, AND ENTERS
    IRAN JUST N OF THE ARABIAN GULF. IT CONTS ENE INTO ANOTHER LOW AT
    33N/57E (1008MB). FROM THIS LOW A TROF XTNDS SW TO 24.5N/51E, W
    TO 24N/48E1 THEN NW TO 27N/44E. THE ONLY WX ASSOC W/ THE TROF IS
    BKN SC/CU OVR THE GULF# AND ISOLD GUSTY WNDS ALG THE WRN GVLF CSTS.
    A WK LOW WAS ANALYZED ON THE RED SEA TROF AT 25N/38.5F. A SHORT TROF
    XTNDS N TO 29N/3SE1 AND THE RED SEA TRUF XTNDS SSW TO 9N/36E. THE
    RIDGE TO THE N HAS TWO CNTRS LOCATED AT 43N/39E (1027MBJ1 AND 40N/
    50E (1020MB). THE-SAN RIDGE HAS THREE CNTRS AT 31N/22E (1026MB),
    20N/42~5E (1022MB), AND 20N/55.5E (1015MB). THE FRNT IS SUPPORTED
    CVR HAS DSPTD AS IT HAS BECOME HIGH ZONAL. THRU THIS PERIOD XPCT THE
    POLAR FRNT TO DOMINATE CNTL TO SRN IQ/NRN SAUDI, AS IT CONTS TO SHIFT
    SLWLY S. THE LOWS ARE XPCTD TO TRACK E, THEN SSE ALG THE ZAGROS
    MTNS. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE PLACEMENTS OF THE FRNTS AND
    LOWS1 EXCEPT FOR THE LOW IN NERN IO' WHICH WAS VERIFIED BY METSAT.
    T! Y ALSO TRACK THE MOVMTS OF THE FRNTS WELL, EXCEPT WHEN THEY MOVE
    INAO THE NRN GULF, WHERE THE TROFS GET LOST IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
    BASED ON CONTINUITY' AND WITH SEC OBS, THE TRACKING OF A LOW INTO AND
    THRU THE GULF HAS BEEN VERIFIED1 AND THIS TREND IS XPCTD TO CONT THRU
    THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTY SFC WNDS, AND ISOLD RASH/TSTMS OCCURING IN THE
    GULF REGION By EOP. OTHERWISE, XPCT CONTD LOW/MID CIGS TO MOVE THRU
    THE NRN AOR IN THE VCNTY OF THE POLAR FRNT.
    2. (U) SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 25/OOZ
                      POINT 1	          POINT 2 		  POINT 3
                   ( 26N/52E)                (22N/64E)                (18N/40E)
  TEMP (C)          22                     24		   27
   WAVE DIR   260	            030		  100
    PERIOD SEC   0                       4		    4
     HEIGHT FT     1                      3		    2
  3~ (U) PART C: METSAT DISCUSSION:
 CONTINUITY ON DMSP IMAGERY THIS MORNG GIVES THE MOVMT OF THE COLD
 FRNT IN CNTL IQ AS SE AT 15KTS. A LOW IS EVIDENT ON THE SFC (35N/
 45E)' W/ FRNTL BNDRY XINDG SW TO SEC LOW IN MED (33N/33E). THIS LOW
  HAS BKN CUSC IN A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC PTRN W/ SFC TROFG ENHANCG
 BKN SC OVR MOST OF THE ERN MED. STJ CONTS TO DRIFT S W/ POLAR SURGE
 IN NRN AOR. CURR AXIS OF STJ IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO 22N OVR AFRICA
 AND ERN SA, W/ SLGT ANTICYCLONIC CURV OVR SRN IRAN. THRUOUT THE STJ
 FLOW1 THIN BKN CI IS EVIDENT, W/ TRANSVRS BANDG PROMINENT OVR SE SA,
 CAUSED By THF PFJ/STJ INTERACTION. RAD FG AGAIN DVLPD OVRNITE, W/
 TWO LARGE DENSE AREAS IN SA. ONE-W OF 45E BTWN 25N AND 29SN AND THE
 0.~ER IN THE SE FRM 24N/53E1 XTNDG SW TO 22N/47E1 THEY HAVE DSPTD
 DURING THE MORNG HRS. AREA OF RAD FG IN NRN SA IS BEING LFTD'TO BKN
 ST/SC IN SRN Ig AS COLD AIR FRM FRNT NUDGES UNDER THE WARM~ MOIST AIR
 BEING ADVECTED ENE. VEY ISOLD CONVECTION OCCuRED THIS MORNG AS SWV
PASSED OVR SFC TROFG IN NERN SA IN UNISON W/AMPLE LOW AND MID LVL

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