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         PORTION FROM PAGE 1-2 WITHHELD. NOT HEALTH RELATED.
         SCUD/CHEMICAL WEAPONS ACTIVITY ( u) :
         
             U.S. CENTCOM PREDICTS:
             
          - IRAQ IS LIKELY TO RESUME SRBM LAUNCHES AGAINST ISRAEL,
            SAUDI ARABIA AND POSSIBLY KUWAIT. THEY ASSESS THE LAUNCH
            WILL OCCUR DURINC THE NIGHT.
            
                [(b)(l)sec3.4(b)(l)]
                
               [(b)(l)sec3.4(b)(1)]
               
            - [(b)(l)sec3.4(b)(1)]
            THAT THE IRAQI SCUD AND MISSILES WERE NOT OUTFITTED WITH
            WARHEADS CONTAINING CHEMICAL WEAPONS DUE TP THE FOLLOWING
            REASONS.
            
           -- THE IRAQIS HAD EXPERIENCED A NUMBER OF CHEMICAL
              ACCIDENTS AND DIFFICULlY FILLING BOMBS AND WARHEADS
              WITH CHEMICALS.
              
           -- THEY HAD DIFFICULlY TRYING TO FIT EXPLOSIVES INTO
              REVERSE ENGINEERED SOVIET BOMBS.
              
                   [(b)(l)sec3.4(b)(1)] _
             INFORMATION ON CHEMICAL WEAPONS:

           -- ALTHOUGH ALL ARTILLERY UNITS COULD FIRE CHEMICAL
              MUNITIONS,            UNIT HAD NO PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE WITH AND HAD
              NOT BEEN BRIEFED ON PROCEDURES TO OBTAIN OR DELIVER CHEMICAL
              WEAPONS. [(b)(l)sec3.4(b)(1)]

              [(b)(l)sec3.4(b)(1)] KNEW OF NO CHEMICAL WEAPON SIOCK PILES BUT BELIEVED
    	    REPUBLICAN GUARD WOULD HAVE THEM.
        
           -- BELIEVED USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS WOOLD BE RESTRICTED
              BECAUSE OF THE DANGER OF HIGH CASUALTIES AMONG IRAQI
              SOLDIERS, WHO HAVE ONLY LIMITED CHEMICAL PROTECTIVE
              GEAR.
              
                     - THE APPARENT LACK OF READINESS TO USE CHEMICAL
      WEAPONS MAY HELP ACCOUNT FOR THE ABSENCE OF CHEMICAL
      ATTACKS SO FAR. HOWEVER, THE REPUBLICAN GUARD UNITS ALMOST
      CERTAINLY ARE TRAINED IN CHEMICAL WARFARE

        PORTIONS FROM PAGE 3 WITHHELD.  NOT HEALTH RELATED.

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